The Mentals

Charts say what the price did. The numbers say what the business is worth. The mentals are why the price moved anyway. Each issue takes one of those moves and explains it in plain English, after the fact: what happened, why, and what the numbers can and can't tell you. No picks.

Latest issue Issue 14 · October 5, 2026 What if Trump takes a stake in OpenAI and Anthropic? He says he might. He already did it to Intel, at $20.47 a share. Here's what that did to the people who owned it. Read the issue →

13 October 2, 2026 Why health care is most of job growth The economy added 29,000 jobs. Health care added 17,000. And the reason isn't that health care is booming. 12 September 29, 2026 Why PCE is higher than CPI Core CPI just hit a five-year low. The Fed's gauge is nearly a point higher and heading the other way. Only one of them decides rates. 11 September 29, 2026 Why chip stocks fell while Nvidia rose Nothing happened to chip demand. One of the biggest customers for AI compute switched its own models off until it can fix something. 10 September 28, 2026 What a $150 billion buyback actually does Nvidia authorized the largest buyback in history. It moves earnings per share about 4%. Whether it helps you at all depends on one thing nobody quotes. 09 September 27, 2026 Why gold isn't hedging inflation? Gold is down 7% in a month. Expected inflation didn't move at all. The reason is a yield most people have never looked at. 08 September 24, 2026 Why rising yields hit solar stocks The S&P 500 closed down 0.02% while five of its members fell more than 6%. Borrowing costs, an abandoned bid and a takeover offer did the work. 07 September 24, 2026 What Oracle's force majeure notice means Oracle filed a force majeure notice on a New Mexico data center. The cause wasn't AI demand. It was a permit, and the bond market noticed. 06 September 23, 2026 Why PMI reports move Treasury yields The Fed raised rates last week and the 10-year sat still for four sessions. A private survey landed this morning and it broke above 5%. 05 September 22, 2026 Why the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% The Fed raised a quarter point. The 10-year moved more than twice that, mostly before the meeting. Japan is part of the reason, and it's still in play. 04 September 16, 2026 What happened after the 2022 and 2023 hikes 2023's last hike brought a three-month correction. 2022's first hike came with a ten-month bear market. Which one this week rhymes with. 03 September 15, 2026 How rates hit semis, software, bitcoin The Fed decides Wednesday and most of a rate increase is already priced. What that means for semiconductors, software, bitcoin and oil. 02 September 14, 2026 Anthropic wants to slow AI down. What would that do to chips and software? The industry just said it wants to slow down. That's bad news and good news at the same time, and only one half of it shows up fast. 01 September 11, 2026 Priced For a Rate Increase Stocks fell on the calm inflation report and rose on the hot one. Going into Wednesday, futures pricing has moved close to settled.